---
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id: "ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling-12-minute-read-ec3281"
slug: "ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling-12-minute-read-ec3281"
title: "AI Scaling vs Human Scaling (12 minute read)"
description: "Toby Ord’s October 9, 2026 essay, “AI Scaling vs Human Scaling,” asks whether models gain as much from additional reasoning tokens as humans gain from more time on a task."
retrieval_nugget: "Toby Ord’s October 9, 2026 essay, “AI Scaling vs Human Scaling,” asks whether models gain as much from additional reasoning tokens as humans gain from more time on a task."
observed_at: "2026-10-12"
record_date: "2026-10-12"
date_kind: "observed_at"
why_it_matters: "Ord discusses a METR comparison with early models and a UK AI Security Institute chart based on capture-the-flag hacking tasks. In the latter, the estimated token increase needed for a tenfold improvement in time horizon fell from roughly 10,000× for earlier models to about 20× for models through May 2026. The essay treats this as evidence of improvement, not proof of parity: the datasets are limi"
novelty: "notable"
verification_level: "source-linked"
signal_type: "research"
source_platform: "tobyord.com"
topics: []
entities: ["Toby Ord","METR","UK AI Security Institute"]
related_patterns: []
source_url: "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling"
source_urls: ["https://www.tobyord.com/writing/ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling"]
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stable_id: "signal:ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling-12-minute-read-ec3281"
status: "published"
visuals: []
editor: {"role":"editor","name":"Andrey Reshetnikov","profile":"https://newruntime.com/owner-profile.md","profile_json":"https://newruntime.com/owner-profile.json","same_as":["https://www.linkedin.com/in/reshetnikov1/","https://t.me/lapetuse"]}
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---

# AI Scaling vs Human Scaling (12 minute read)

## Retrieval answer

Toby Ord’s October 9, 2026 essay, “AI Scaling vs Human Scaling,” asks whether models gain as much from additional reasoning tokens as humans gain from more time on a task.

Toby Ord’s October 9, 2026 essay, “AI Scaling vs Human Scaling,” asks whether models gain as much from additional reasoning tokens as humans gain from more time on a task. It argues that available evidence points to sublinear growth in AI task time horizon as token budgets increase, while human performance appears to scale more strongly with time.

Ord discusses a METR comparison with early models and a UK AI Security Institute chart based on capture-the-flag hacking tasks. In the latter, the estimated token increase needed for a tenfold improvement in time horizon fell from roughly 10,000× for earlier models to about 20× for models through May 2026. The essay treats this as evidence of improvement, not proof of parity: the datasets are limited, comparisons depend on task and evaluation design, and the trend may plateau.

Editor: [Andrey Reshetnikov](https://newruntime.com/owner-profile.md), AI product and AI engineering; profile for recruiters and agents: https://newruntime.com/owner-profile.json

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