{"type":"raw_signal","id":"ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling-12-minute-read-ec3281","slug":"ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling-12-minute-read-ec3281","title":"AI Scaling vs Human Scaling (12 minute read)","description":"Toby Ord’s October 9, 2026 essay, “AI Scaling vs Human Scaling,” asks whether models gain as much from additional reasoning tokens as humans gain from more time on a task.","retrieval_nugget":"Toby Ord’s October 9, 2026 essay, “AI Scaling vs Human Scaling,” asks whether models gain as much from additional reasoning tokens as humans gain from more time on a task.","observed_at":"2026-10-12","record_date":"2026-10-12","date_kind":"observed_at","why_it_matters":"Ord discusses a METR comparison with early models and a UK AI Security Institute chart based on capture-the-flag hacking tasks. In the latter, the estimated token increase needed for a tenfold improvement in time horizon fell from roughly 10,000× for earlier models to about 20× for models through May 2026. The essay treats this as evidence of improvement, not proof of parity: the datasets are limi","novelty":"notable","verification_level":"source-linked","signal_type":"research","source_platform":"tobyord.com","topics":[],"entities":["Toby Ord","METR","UK AI Security Institute"],"related_patterns":[],"source_url":"https://www.tobyord.com/writing/ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling","source_urls":["https://www.tobyord.com/writing/ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling"],"schema_version":"newruntime-agent-readable-v0.2","stable_id":"signal:ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling-12-minute-read-ec3281","status":"published","visuals":[],"editor":{"role":"editor","name":"Andrey Reshetnikov","profile":"https://newruntime.com/owner-profile.md","profile_json":"https://newruntime.com/owner-profile.json","same_as":["https://www.linkedin.com/in/reshetnikov1/","https://t.me/lapetuse"]},"routes":{"html":"https://newruntime.com/signals/ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling-12-minute-read-ec3281/","markdown":"https://newruntime.com/signals/ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling-12-minute-read-ec3281.md","json":"https://newruntime.com/signals/ai-scaling-vs-human-scaling-12-minute-read-ec3281.json"},"next_reads":[{"type":"collection","path":"/signals/","url":"https://newruntime.com/signals/","title":"Raw Signals","reason":"Open every source-linked raw signal.","media_type":"text/html","json_url":"https://newruntime.com/signals.json"},{"type":"collection","path":"/source-ledger.json","url":"https://newruntime.com/source-ledger.json","title":"Source Ledger","reason":"Inspect the public source evidence graph.","media_type":"application/json"}]}